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2021 NBA Playoffs: Hawks vs. Bucks odds, line, picks, Game 5 predictions from computer model on 100-66 roll

The 2021 NBA Playoffs continue on Thursday night when the Milwaukee Bucks try to bounce back against the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks lost by a 110-88 margin in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday, with the Hawks evening the series at 2-2. Injuries are also playing a significant part in the series on both sides, particularly in advance of Thursday’s game. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) has been ruled out for Milwaukee and Trae Young (knee) has been ruled out for Atlanta. Clint Capela (eye) will play for the Hawks.

William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bucks as three-point home favorites in its latest NBA odds today, while the over-under is 215 in the latest Hawks vs. Bucks odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Before you make any Bucks vs. Hawks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in its Hawks vs. Bucks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Bucks vs. Hawks:

  • Hawks vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -3
  • Hawks vs. Bucks over-under: 215 points
  • Hawks vs. Bucks moneyline: Bucks -145, Hawks +125
  • ATL: The Hawks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta’s offense enjoyed real balance in Game 4, and that is a reminder of their roster talent. Lou Williams led the way with 21 points, but it took a village to generate the nearly 1.2 points per possession for the Hawks. Bogdan Bogdanovic found his stroke with six three-pointers. The return of Cam Reddish to the rotation gave the Hawks a top-tier wing defender and notably bothered the Bucks’ Khris Middleton.

The Hawks held the Bucks to 0.95 points per possession in their last game and, for the NBA Playoffs 2021, Atlanta’s defense rating (109.0 points allowed per 100 possessions) is far better than its regular season baseline. The Hawks excel at keeping opponents away from the free throw line and, in the series, the Bucks are generating a free throw rate of only 0.179. Milwaukee is also shooting under 70 percent at the stripe in the 2021 NBA Playoffs, and the Hawks are doing a strong job at bending the math in their favor by working well on the margins.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s defense remains elite and that can cure a lot of ills. The Bucks are leading the 2021 NBA Playoffs in a myriad defensive categories, including an efficiency mark of 104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. Milwaukee also leads the league in free throw rate allowed (0.189) during the playoffs, and the Bucks have done a strong job at keeping Atlanta away from the charity stripe. 

The Bucks are grabbing nearly 78 percent of available rebounds on the defensive glass and opponents are posting only a 51.3 percent effective field goal shooting mark in the NBA Playoffs 2021. Milwaukee is also effectively creating turnovers against the Hawks, forcing a giveaway on 14.7 percent of defensive trips and generating 8.5 steals per game. The Bucks can also take solace in their rim protection behind Brook Lopez, as they are allowing only 38.9 points in the paint per game against the Hawks. Milwaukee has been the better team by net rating, outscoring Atlanta by 5.1 points per 100 possessions, and they also have the benefit of a strong home-court advantage.

How to make Bucks vs. Hawks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Hawks vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.